07 JAN 08 / "Romney Consolidating the Reagan Coalition"

The extent of Mike Huckabee's victory in the Iowa caucuses last week was surprising. Huckabee is an excellent and, at times, humorous speaker who connects with people, an important quality in a politician.

For the eventual Republican nominee to be successful in the general election, however; he must unite the 3 components of the Reagan coalition: social conservatives, economic conservatives, and national security conservatives. Huckabee clearly has the inside track on the social conservatives, as many evangelicals are rejecting Romney because of his religion; but Huckabee will fail to capture the other two categories.

John McCain is an American hero, but he draws his strength primarily from national security conservatives and independents. Economic and social conservatives don't view McCain as their candidate.

Rudy Giuliani has support from both national security and economic conservatives, but he lacks support from social conservatives.

This is why -- despite what happened in Iowa and what might happen tomorrow in New Hampshire -- Mitt Romney remains my odds on favorite to win the Republican nomination. He simply is the best candidate to consolidate the Reagan coalition. The evangelicals may wrongly view his religion as a cult, but other social conservatives will eventually come to the determination that -- of all the candidates -- Mitt Romney best shares their values.