05 MAY 08 / "The Battle for Sadr City"

In the past weeks, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, known as the Mahdi Army, fought American and Iraqi forces in Basra. Now, with Basra largely controlled by the Iraqi army, the sides are fighting in the northeastern Baghdad slum of Sadr City. While the battles have been fierce at times, it appears Sadr's militia has not yet been fully engaged because the casualties on both sides have been relatively low. This may be due to the fact that mass formations are easily targeted by the American military from the air.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Malaki, himself a Shiite, began the offensive against the Mahdi Army in Basra on 25 March. Malaki must now view Sadr as a threat to the stability of the Iraqi government. Given his popularity among the Shiite majority, Sadr must see himself as a future leader of Iraq.

Since the invasion of Iraq, Sadr has sent mixed signals to the United States. He is believed to be living in Iran and otherwise has kept a low profile, biding his time. Recently, however, as the counter-insurgency strategy implemented by General David Petraeus is bearing fruit, the Mahdi Army has been more actively confrontational and provocative.

The current battle in Sadr City is centered on the Iraqi army's attempt to purge the densely populated area of extremist factions loyal to al Sadr. U.S. and Iraqi forces are building a wall to separate the militias from the rest of the population. In the weeks of fighting, there have been many civilian deaths and casualties including women and children; and American and Iraqi forces have accused the Mahdi Army as using civilians as human shields.

The fact that Sadr, with his sizable militia, cannot expel the Americans and Iraqis from the enclave is in itself a victory for the Iraqi government; but Sadr's strategy may be to draw his opposition deeper into the pitched battle. Sadr claims that he only wants to fight Americans, not other Iraqis.

The battle for Sadr City may prove to be the pivotal moment in the Iraq War. If American and Iraqi forces prevail, Iraq may be on course for democracy and prosperity. If the Shiite extremists in the Mahdi Army are able to maintain their level of attacks, however, the future of Iraq will continue to be marred by tragedy and violence.